NEGATIVE BINOMIAL ANALYSIS OF INTERSECTION-AcCIDENT FREQUENCIES

نویسندگان

  • Mark Poch
  • Fred Mannering
چکیده

Traffic accidents at urban intersections result in a huge cost to society in tenns of death, injury, lost productivity, and property damage. Unfortunately, the elements that effect the frequency of intersection accidents are not well understood and, as a result, it is difficult to predict the effectiveness of specific intersection improvements that are aimed at reducing accident frequency. Using seven-yr accident histories from 63 intersections in Bellevue, Washington (all of which were targeted for operational improvements), this paper estimates a negative binomial regression of the frequency of accidents at intersection approaches. The estimation results uncover important interactions between geometric and traffic-related elements and accident frequencies. The findings of this paper provide exploratory methodological and empirical evidence that could lead to an approach to estimate the accident reduction benefits of various proposed improvements on operationally deficient intersections.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Modeling Multiple–Vehicle Property Damage Collisions in Urban Signalized Intersections

Development of disaggregate models for estimating different property damage collision type frequencies in urban intersections has rarely been studied, particularly in Iran. It seems very little research work being implemented for studying the effect factors on collision type frequency at intersections. The main objective of this paper is to develop suitable statistical models to predict types o...

متن کامل

Effects of Roadway and Traffic Characteristics on Accidents Frequency at City Entrance Zone

More than 60% of accidents in Iran occur within 30 kilometers of cities entrance roads. Therefore the number of accidents per kilometer in these regions, in contrast to the other parts of roads is very considerable. The city of Tehran, as the capital of Iran, is the cross point of major arterials of passenger and freight transportation. Thus the evaluation of road safety, entering and exiting t...

متن کامل

Markov switching negative binomial models: an application to vehicle accident frequencies.

In this paper, two-state Markov switching models are proposed to study accident frequencies. These models assume that there are two unobserved states of roadway safety, and that roadway entities (roadway segments) can switch between these states over time. The states are distinct, in the sense that in the different states accident frequencies are generated by separate counting processes (by sep...

متن کامل

Identification of an Accident Prediction Model for Red Light Camera Analysis

Motor vehicle crash data were extracted from the Florida Department of Motor Vehicle and Highway Safety dataset for 40 intersections within Miami-Dade County, Florida for development of an accident prediction model. Each intersection was matched at least one of 20 red light camera (RLC) sites using selected geometric variables. In addition, each intersection examined was at least 2 miles away f...

متن کامل

Identification of an Accident Prediction Model for Red Light Camera Analysis

Motor vehicle crash data were extracted from the Florida Department of Motor Vehicle and Highway Safety dataset for 40 intersections within Miami-Dade County, Florida for development of an accident prediction model. Each intersection was matched at least one of 20 red light camera (RLC) sites using selected geometric variables. In addition, each intersection examined was at least 2 miles away f...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 1996